Sports Betting Blog

It’s been a good season for the Jayhawks. They are one of the favorite teams to make it to Indianapolis and it just seems that they shouldn’t get into much trouble on their way up the NCAA Tournament Bracket. At least not until they hit the Final Four, that’s what some of the specialist are stating, and if you take a look at the Odds to Win the NCAA Tournament you would see most handicappers are expecting the Championship Trophy to make it to Lawrence, KS.

This is a very strong team, with a highly effective offense and a solid defense that ranks among the top 5 teams in the Nation in the statistical categories that matter most.

Sherron Collins has been a key player in setting up a good tempo for the Jayhawks offensive. He is also Coach Bill Self’s weapon of choice for those hard to make and decisive shots. But interesting enough, the Jayhawks don’t rely completely on their distributor. Every major rotation player uses between 20 and 23% of the teams possessions while on the floor.

In terms of wagering the Jayhawks are not as strong as their Straight Up record might suggest. For instance, Kansas State is 19-9 ATS, while Kansas is only 14-16 when it comes to covering their spread. But there is more here to consider. Once the postseason kicked in, the Jayhawks just got stronger in terms of wagering. They have covered their spread in 4 of their last 5 games, which is quite an improvement from the 46.7 overall ATS percentage.

There is always a chance for an upset. And the players must also realize that this particular region is packed with very strong and demanding teams. KU could see either UNLV or Northern Iowa in the second round. The Jayhawks could find either Michigan State or Maryland in the Sweet Sixteen round. All though a bit inconsistent, the Spartans could easily get KU into trouble. As if that was not enough, if we keep speculating down the road, they might have to muscle past Ohio State or Georgetown for the regional final. What I’m saying here is that KU might have to push harder then some other reporters have tried to make it seem in order to get to the Final Four.

Now keep an eye out for a Tennessee vs San Diego State match in the first round. As of press time, the Tennessee Volunteers are a -3½ point favorite in BetIAS NCAA Basketball Wagering Lines.  But this promises to be one of the best games of the region. They are expected to put out a great show. This is one of the factors that make this such an interesting region: Talented players all over the bracket. Consider Maryland’s Greivis Vasquez, Northern Iowa’s Adam Koch and Oklahoma State’s James Anderson. As if that was not enough you also have KU’s Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich, Georgia Tech’s Derrick Favors and UNLV’s Tre’von Willis, so keep an eye out for all those players and make some money out of their talent playing on the extensive list of Props and Matchups that BetIAS has to offer in their selection of March Madness Props.

The bottom left of your bracket has Syracuse as the number one seed. And they deserved their spot. The Orange had an amazing regular season. They are currently 28-4 SU for the season and as if that was not enough, has had an 11-2 mark on the road, including the latest games in the Big East Tourney. In terms of wagering, Syracuse is one of the best teams this season when it comes to covering the spread.

Before the first round of the NCAA Tournament begins, the Syracuse Orange is 19-9 ATS. So they have covered their spread in 67.9% of their games. That’s 25% better then Kansas and almost 12% improvement over Kentucky’s ATS performance.

But Syracuse is not as strong as one would like before the First Round. They have lost their two previous games against Louisville and Georgetown by at least 7 points. Sure they had already won the Big East Conference title outright, but things didn’t go well in the conference tourney. Add the recent injury of power-forward Arinze Onaku’s quadriceps and suddenly the team seams to be hurting in both defense and offense.

Two years ago, the Vermont Catamounts stun them and send the Orange back home before in the first round in 2005. The team is not going to miss Onaku too much in their first game against the Catamounts, they are a -17.5 point favorite here. But they must be wishing for a quick healing in Onaku’s quads, because they probably won’t make it pass the Elite Eight or the Final Four if the 6-foot-9 forward is not battling over the paint. They are sure going to need him if they make it down the NCAA Tournament Bracket and into the Elite Eight and meet Kansas State, which is a formidable team in the interior.

Watch out for UTEP and Butler. These two powerful teams are sure enough going to make up for one exciting game. The Bulldogs go into the opening round with a 20 game win streak. UTEP on the other hand has two very big players in the front, at 6-9 and 6-11 respectively, both Derrick Caracter and Arnet Moultrie are the kind of players that could get Butler’s star player, Matt Howard, into trouble. As of press time, Butler is a -2½ point favorite. But chances are that UTEP could very well take this game and make it into the second round, probably against (-3 point favorite over Murray State) Vanderbilt, a strong team that really needs to improve its performance on defense.

While you are at it, keep an eye out for BYU’s Jimmer Fredette. He has averaged 37.5 points per game in his last to appearances with the team. He has a 44.8% in the 3-point range and is quite a safe choice on free throws. Look around for Props and Matchups for this and other players in the NCAA Tournament at BetIAS.com

If we look at the odds, and take some chances, it is quite possible that both Syracuse and Kansas State are going to meet again in the Elite Eight Round. And if this happens, then the orange are really going to need Onaku at his best. And it’s not quite certain the nature of the injury or if he is going to be back in the field anytime soon. The Wildcats, on the other hand, have been extremely good picking up balls from the boards. They’ve grabbed 40.6% of available rebounds this season.

If you are taking part of the action in March Madness, this information might be of your interest. There is a big difference between the die-hard College Basketball fan, and the sports bettor.  The first plays by hearth, the second by rhyme and reason.

I am aware that other Sports News sites offer very complete blogs with statistics and constant first-hand updates. I visit them too. Those sites are great, but mean very little to the bettor. On the other hand, this site is written for players by players, and from true insiders of the offshore wagering industry. I’m part of a group of young writers offering you important betting-related-statistics that might just put you over the edge.

Other handicapping sites offer you winning peaks in exchange for money. Not here. I will not pretend to know enough to tell you if the Duke Blue Devils or any other team is going to cover its spread or not in the next game. If you look around in the blog you will not see any of that. I like the thrill, the research, the speculating involved in making every pick.

This is what our team does. It keeps track of every opening and closing line offered at BetIAS; it follows up with final-scores and keeps track of various key-teams’ performances in terms of wagering: this is, how many times has a team covered its spread in the regular  season; how many of its games have gone over or under; what is their wining percentage when playing Against The Spread (ATS), etc.  We have prepared this table with both sports-based and bettor-related information of the Top 6 Ranked teams according to the Associated Press poll.

Stats you won’t find in ESPN
If you are planning to take some action on the Super Bowl XLIV, you really don’t want to miss this article. Take my word on it. There are plenty of Sports News websites offering very detailed information on the Colts’ and the Saints’ performance during the regular season and the playoffs. They can do a much better job than us at it, and I know it. Don’t get me wrong here, those stats and factoids are great valuable information for the general fan; but if you are making an investment in the most viewed sporting event in the nation, those stats don’t really mean that much.

If you truly want to make the most out of your picks for the Big Game, then you would like to know how both the Saints and the Colts have performed against the football wagering odds, rather than mere straight up results. And this is where this article kicks in. For Instance, the regular fan (and the regular fan’s sports news site) could tell you that the Colts finished the regular season with a 14-2 record. What’s more, he or she could tell you that the Colts lost their last two games of the season against the Jets and the Bills because Coach Jim Caldwell sat down his key players. What the regular fan (and the regular fan’s sports news site) won’t tell you is that the Colts team covered its wagering spread in 8 of those 14 games. Even more, the Colts have very well covered their spreads in their two playoffs games against the Ravens and the Jets by at least 5 extra points each.

Teams overall performance against the spread
Can you see where I’m going with this? What I am offering here are Super Bowl statistics for the bettor, for the online-gambler, not quite for the regular Joe. So far into the 2009-2010 NFL Football season, the Colts have covered the spread in 66.6% of their games. But hold your horses.

Remember that this is the Big Game. Remember also that this is the Saints first shot at a Super Bowl, and while this can be extremely intimidating, it can also be quite a motivational booster. Lastly, these are just statistics, not the gospel, not an infallible omen. Choose wisely.

Let’s take a look at New Orleans now. The Saints are 13-3 in the regular season. They are 8-8 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season. They are 1-1 ATS in the playoffs. What you might want to take into consideration here is that the Saints have not covered their spread in 6 of their last 7 games, including their over time win against the Minnesota Vikings for the Conference Championship.

Don’t rush into early conclusions just yet. There are a couple other factors you might want to include in your calculations. First, the Saints have been a much better running team this season than the Colts. Historically, the best running team has won 17 of the last 29 Super Bowls. If you want to go with ESPN’s power rankings, the Saints are ranked #1 in running game performance, while the Colts are #22.

As of press time, the Saints are a +5 point underdog. Instant Action Sports opened the line at Colts -6. Underdogs are 18-23-2 ATS in the Big Game. As of press time the line has already gone from -6 to -5½, and recently to -5, following market pressures. The trend might continue or reverse. It all depends on what happens once the weekend kicks in and the bulk of the players come in. So keep an eye out for those changes on the board.

What about the field’s surface?
Here is another fact you might want to consider. The Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, has a natural grass field. New Orleans is 3-2 in the current season and 10-8 in the last three in this kind of surface against the spread. The Colts, on the other hand, are 5-0 for the current season and 11-8 in the last three seasons ATS in natural surfaces.

Is having a high-scoring offense enough to win the Big Game?
If you were loosing your faith in the Saints, check this stat out. I personally think it’s a good one. ALL the 18 teams that have scored over 32 points in the Super Bowl have taken home the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Check this out. In regular season, the New Orleans Saints were the best scoring team in the League with 31.9 points per game. The Colts on the other hand averaged 26 points per game. Including playoffs, the Saint’s moved their record to 32.6 points per game, while the Colts went down to 25.9.

Mixing it up: surface, scoring, veterans vs newbies
Now, let’s factor in the field’s surface and the Saint’s get even better. On grass surfaces the Colts average 29 points per game this season. On that same surface the Saints are 35 points per game. That’s 3 points above that 18-0 Super Bowl winning magic number. In this year’s playoffs the Colts have scored 50 points, while the Saints have scored 76; this could be a significant difference, even for Super Bowl newbies who has the odds against them. Let’s not forget that first time Super Bowl participants are 4-15 straight up, and 6-12-1 against the spread.

Bottom line: The novice bettor plays by heart. The more experienced player does his research and tries to analyze the valuable information at hand to take the most informed pick. Wagering is not meant to be rocket science. Many situations and circumstances factor in a game result. That’s what make’s it fun. The uncertainty is what keeps it exciting.