Tag: Super Bowl XLIV wagering odds
Stats you won’t find in ESPN
If you are planning to take some action on the Super Bowl XLIV, you really don’t want to miss this article. Take my word on it. There are plenty of Sports News websites offering very detailed information on the Colts’ and the Saints’ performance during the regular season and the playoffs. They can do a much better job than us at it, and I know it. Don’t get me wrong here, those stats and factoids are great valuable information for the general fan; but if you are making an investment in the most viewed sporting event in the nation, those stats don’t really mean that much.
If you truly want to make the most out of your picks for the Big Game, then you would like to know how both the Saints and the Colts have performed against the football wagering odds, rather than mere straight up results. And this is where this article kicks in. For Instance, the regular fan (and the regular fan’s sports news site) could tell you that the Colts finished the regular season with a 14-2 record. What’s more, he or she could tell you that the Colts lost their last two games of the season against the Jets and the Bills because Coach Jim Caldwell sat down his key players. What the regular fan (and the regular fan’s sports news site) won’t tell you is that the Colts team covered its wagering spread in 8 of those 14 games. Even more, the Colts have very well covered their spreads in their two playoffs games against the Ravens and the Jets by at least 5 extra points each.
Teams overall performance against the spread
Can you see where I’m going with this? What I am offering here are Super Bowl statistics for the bettor, for the online-gambler, not quite for the regular Joe. So far into the 2009-2010 NFL Football season, the Colts have covered the spread in 66.6% of their games. But hold your horses.
Remember that this is the Big Game. Remember also that this is the Saints first shot at a Super Bowl, and while this can be extremely intimidating, it can also be quite a motivational booster. Lastly, these are just statistics, not the gospel, not an infallible omen. Choose wisely.
Let’s take a look at New Orleans now. The Saints are 13-3 in the regular season. They are 8-8 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season. They are 1-1 ATS in the playoffs. What you might want to take into consideration here is that the Saints have not covered their spread in 6 of their last 7 games, including their over time win against the Minnesota Vikings for the Conference Championship.
Don’t rush into early conclusions just yet. There are a couple other factors you might want to include in your calculations. First, the Saints have been a much better running team this season than the Colts. Historically, the best running team has won 17 of the last 29 Super Bowls. If you want to go with ESPN’s power rankings, the Saints are ranked #1 in running game performance, while the Colts are #22.
As of press time, the Saints are a +5 point underdog. Instant Action Sports opened the line at Colts -6. Underdogs are 18-23-2 ATS in the Big Game. As of press time the line has already gone from -6 to -5½, and recently to -5, following market pressures. The trend might continue or reverse. It all depends on what happens once the weekend kicks in and the bulk of the players come in. So keep an eye out for those changes on the board.
What about the field’s surface?
Here is another fact you might want to consider. The Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, has a natural grass field. New Orleans is 3-2 in the current season and 10-8 in the last three in this kind of surface against the spread. The Colts, on the other hand, are 5-0 for the current season and 11-8 in the last three seasons ATS in natural surfaces.
Is having a high-scoring offense enough to win the Big Game?
If you were loosing your faith in the Saints, check this stat out. I personally think it’s a good one. ALL the 18 teams that have scored over 32 points in the Super Bowl have taken home the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Check this out. In regular season, the New Orleans Saints were the best scoring team in the League with 31.9 points per game. The Colts on the other hand averaged 26 points per game. Including playoffs, the Saint’s moved their record to 32.6 points per game, while the Colts went down to 25.9.
Mixing it up: surface, scoring, veterans vs newbies
Now, let’s factor in the field’s surface and the Saint’s get even better. On grass surfaces the Colts average 29 points per game this season. On that same surface the Saints are 35 points per game. That’s 3 points above that 18-0 Super Bowl winning magic number. In this year’s playoffs the Colts have scored 50 points, while the Saints have scored 76; this could be a significant difference, even for Super Bowl newbies who has the odds against them. Let’s not forget that first time Super Bowl participants are 4-15 straight up, and 6-12-1 against the spread.
Bottom line: The novice bettor plays by heart. The more experienced player does his research and tries to analyze the valuable information at hand to take the most informed pick. Wagering is not meant to be rocket science. Many situations and circumstances factor in a game result. That’s what make’s it fun. The uncertainty is what keeps it exciting.