Sports Betting Blog

Stats you won’t find in ESPN
If you are planning to take some action on the Super Bowl XLIV, you really don’t want to miss this article. Take my word on it. There are plenty of Sports News websites offering very detailed information on the Colts’ and the Saints’ performance during the regular season and the playoffs. They can do a much better job than us at it, and I know it. Don’t get me wrong here, those stats and factoids are great valuable information for the general fan; but if you are making an investment in the most viewed sporting event in the nation, those stats don’t really mean that much.

If you truly want to make the most out of your picks for the Big Game, then you would like to know how both the Saints and the Colts have performed against the football wagering odds, rather than mere straight up results. And this is where this article kicks in. For Instance, the regular fan (and the regular fan’s sports news site) could tell you that the Colts finished the regular season with a 14-2 record. What’s more, he or she could tell you that the Colts lost their last two games of the season against the Jets and the Bills because Coach Jim Caldwell sat down his key players. What the regular fan (and the regular fan’s sports news site) won’t tell you is that the Colts team covered its wagering spread in 8 of those 14 games. Even more, the Colts have very well covered their spreads in their two playoffs games against the Ravens and the Jets by at least 5 extra points each.

Teams overall performance against the spread
Can you see where I’m going with this? What I am offering here are Super Bowl statistics for the bettor, for the online-gambler, not quite for the regular Joe. So far into the 2009-2010 NFL Football season, the Colts have covered the spread in 66.6% of their games. But hold your horses.

Remember that this is the Big Game. Remember also that this is the Saints first shot at a Super Bowl, and while this can be extremely intimidating, it can also be quite a motivational booster. Lastly, these are just statistics, not the gospel, not an infallible omen. Choose wisely.

Let’s take a look at New Orleans now. The Saints are 13-3 in the regular season. They are 8-8 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season. They are 1-1 ATS in the playoffs. What you might want to take into consideration here is that the Saints have not covered their spread in 6 of their last 7 games, including their over time win against the Minnesota Vikings for the Conference Championship.

Don’t rush into early conclusions just yet. There are a couple other factors you might want to include in your calculations. First, the Saints have been a much better running team this season than the Colts. Historically, the best running team has won 17 of the last 29 Super Bowls. If you want to go with ESPN’s power rankings, the Saints are ranked #1 in running game performance, while the Colts are #22.

As of press time, the Saints are a +5 point underdog. Instant Action Sports opened the line at Colts -6. Underdogs are 18-23-2 ATS in the Big Game. As of press time the line has already gone from -6 to -5½, and recently to -5, following market pressures. The trend might continue or reverse. It all depends on what happens once the weekend kicks in and the bulk of the players come in. So keep an eye out for those changes on the board.

What about the field’s surface?
Here is another fact you might want to consider. The Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, has a natural grass field. New Orleans is 3-2 in the current season and 10-8 in the last three in this kind of surface against the spread. The Colts, on the other hand, are 5-0 for the current season and 11-8 in the last three seasons ATS in natural surfaces.

Is having a high-scoring offense enough to win the Big Game?
If you were loosing your faith in the Saints, check this stat out. I personally think it’s a good one. ALL the 18 teams that have scored over 32 points in the Super Bowl have taken home the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Check this out. In regular season, the New Orleans Saints were the best scoring team in the League with 31.9 points per game. The Colts on the other hand averaged 26 points per game. Including playoffs, the Saint’s moved their record to 32.6 points per game, while the Colts went down to 25.9.

Mixing it up: surface, scoring, veterans vs newbies
Now, let’s factor in the field’s surface and the Saint’s get even better. On grass surfaces the Colts average 29 points per game this season. On that same surface the Saints are 35 points per game. That’s 3 points above that 18-0 Super Bowl winning magic number. In this year’s playoffs the Colts have scored 50 points, while the Saints have scored 76; this could be a significant difference, even for Super Bowl newbies who has the odds against them. Let’s not forget that first time Super Bowl participants are 4-15 straight up, and 6-12-1 against the spread.

Bottom line: The novice bettor plays by heart. The more experienced player does his research and tries to analyze the valuable information at hand to take the most informed pick. Wagering is not meant to be rocket science. Many situations and circumstances factor in a game result. That’s what make’s it fun. The uncertainty is what keeps it exciting.

The Saints had to go to overtime (and a bit into overdrive) to leave behind Bret Favre and the Minnesota Vikings and grasp a spot in this year’s Super Bowl. The Indianapolis Colts, on the other hand, made it look a little easier with their 30-17 win over the New York Jets. But this is the big game, and anything can happen.

The Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints have had a superb season. Both teams held perfect records until they lost their first games very late into the season, when they decided to sit down their starters before the playoffs. Quite a clever move, if it meant earning a trip to the Super Bowl. They were expected to take over do well in the postseason. In their two playoffs’ games, both in the Divisional Round and the Conference Championship game, they were the spread favorites. Now they are going to face each other in the Sun Life Stadium on February 7th for the National Championship Game.

All eyes are going to be upon star quarterback’s Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. Truth be said, they have had an amazing season, and if you look at their numbers, it would seem like it is going to be a close match. Manning has 68.8 completion percentage while Brees’ has 70.6 and 4388 passing yards, just a tad behind Manning’s 4500.   The Colts QB has completed 33 touchdown passes and has had 16 interceptions; Brees has completed 34 touchdown passes and only 11 interceptions. One figure stands out a bit, thought. The Colt’s defense has only allowed 11 sacks to their QB. The Saints’ defense has allowed twice as many.  If the Saints want to stay in the game, they need to hold back the Colts and give Brees just enough time to do his part.

The Saints are the underdog. But oh, wouldn’t it be a Cinderella story if the Saints made it to their first ever Super Bowl and won? It took New Orleans 21 years to have its first winning season. Hurricane Katrina left the team homeless and wrecked. But now the Big Easy is back, in their best-ever season. The team has enough motivation to actually go out on the field and win it. They have proven to be a team worthy of a Super Bowl. The Aints might just not fit their nickname anymore. The Colts are expected to win it; in fact, yes - the Colts probably are going to win it. (Although I have to confess having a thing for underdog stories.) At least we can rest assured that both Manning and Brees are going to give us a thrilling three and a half hours of entertainment.

As of press time, Online Sportsbook industry leader, Instant Actions Sports has made the Indianapolis Colts favorite by 5½ points. The over/under line is set to 56½ points. The Colts are the clear favorite on the Money-Line by -220 with a comeback of +180 for the Saints.

Minnesota must be a bit worried about this game. They are certainly motivated. This is their first shot at a Super Bowl game since 1976, but playing in the Superdome is not going to make things that easy for the Vikings. Brett Favre and the team have been quite impressive at home this season.  They are 9-0 and the veteran quarterback has thrown 25 touchdown passes and only 2 interceptions at their home field. Things in the road have not been as smooth: with a 4-4 record in hand, we are quite sure that the Vikings would have loved to play at the Metrodome.

The Saints, on the other hand, are having their best season ever. They have a good chance of making it into the Super Bowl for the first time. They are only one home game away from their trip to Florida. And if that is not motivation enough for the players to go out to the field and give us one heck of a game, they don’t belong in the NFL. No matter whom you are cheering for, this is going to be one hell of a match.

Favre is having his best season ever. Even more so if one considers that he wasn’t committed to play for the Vikings until just a couple weeks before the season’s start. He has enough experience to guide his team in this difficult game. But if we try to keep an objective eye on the game, the Saints have an amazing QB, and Minnesota’s defense is going to have to go on overdrive to control Pro Bowl quarterback Drew Brees. This is going to make for one great match-up.

Both teams won their previous games with some unexpected ease. Now they face each other for a spot in the big one. If you are interested in taking some action on the sides or total, don’t forget to check out the game, halves and quarter lines BetIAS has to offer. As of press time, online sportsbook industry leader, Instant Actions Sports has made the New Orleans Saints Saints favorite by -3½ points on the spread. And while you are at it, don’t forget to visit the many different features and props that they have to offer. Its just a little example of what they will be offering for the Super Bowl.

The Vikings have a solid team. They have 9 Pro Bowl players, and are ranked 6^th in the NFL for both offense and defense. They are going to face the top-ranked scoring offense in the league. It’s going to be a good game with a lot of activity close to the end zones.  The combination Favre-Peterson-Rice could mean trouble for the Saints’ defense. But the Superdome is still one of those stadiums that can and will get loud, and can still give a significant advantage to home team. If Reggie Bush can perform like he did last week, well, he is certainly going to give his team a bit of an edge on the offense.

It’s a bit funny how things work out sometimes. Lets take this year’s AFC Championship game for example. We covered this story a couple weeks ago, but here is a recap.  During week 16 of the regular season, The New York Jets were 7-7 and about to be kicked out of the playoffs. They were facing the Indianapolis Colts and with MVP Payton Manning at the helm the Jets were down 15-10 with 5:36 left in the third quarter. And that is when the Colts´ Head Coach, Jim Caldwell, pulled out Manning and some of his other key starters. Backup quarterback Curtis Painter came into the field and before a booing crowd guided the Colts to their first defeat of the season, 29-15.

The Jets then went on to pull off some spectacular games. They faced the Bengals in their last regular season game, and just swipe them off their feet with a 37-0 victory. So, at the moment, it seemed that the Bengals were not trying too hard. They had already secured a spot in the Wild Card Round and there was no reason to push its players harder. So, one could say, they had an “easy” entrance into the Playoffs.

But they have fought with all their might to stay in. In their Wild Card Round game against the Bengals, the Jets were the underdog by 3½ points. And this time, the Bengals were going at it for real. But it mattered very little if the Bengals were trying harder or not. With a strong defense, and some nice plays by rookie Mark Sanchez the Jets just whooped them again, 24-14.

Last week they were facing non other then the well rested San Diego Chargers in what seemed like a tough road game.  With an 11-0 win streak the Chargers were the favorite team by -7 points in the spread by midweek. An hour before kickoff, Instant Actions Sports line movers had made them favorite by -9 points with a -115 juice. But then the unexpected happen. The Jets came back from a 7-0 halftime deficit to win the game 17-14.

The bottom line: they played the game quite smartly. First they set up their top-rated strong and agile defense. Then they ran the ball in a swift offensive strategy that kept pushing the chains. They didn’t ask much from rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez and with good rushing plays they were able to leave the Charges behind. It seems simple, but it has allowed the Jets to win 7 of their last 8 games.

And that sure makes one team extremely happy. Peyton Manning and the Colts have enough experience behind them to know that they cannot (and will not) take their game against the Jets lightly. But if we look back into their last two seasons, it must be quite a relief for the Colts to know that the Jets already took care of the San Diego Chargers.

The San Diego Chargers have defeated the Colts in their last 4 games. What is more important here is that the Chargers have kicked the Colts out of the Playoffs in their last 2 seasons. And truth be said, all though the Colts have already lost to the Jets earlier in the Season, the Jets defeated Curtis Painter´s version of the Colts.

As of press time, according to IAS wagering lines the Indianapolis Colts are the favorite by 7 ½ points on the spread. Just like the Chargers were last week. It is not quite certain if the Jets are going to be able to pull out and upset. It seems quite possible that the Colts are going to take the game. If by any chance, circumstance, or fate, the Jets do win, one cannot forget that it was the Colts, and the Colts alone who gave them an easy pass into the Playoffs.