Sports Betting Blog

Stats you won’t find in ESPN
If you are planning to take some action on the Super Bowl XLIV, you really don’t want to miss this article. Take my word on it. There are plenty of Sports News websites offering very detailed information on the Colts’ and the Saints’ performance during the regular season and the playoffs. They can do a much better job than us at it, and I know it. Don’t get me wrong here, those stats and factoids are great valuable information for the general fan; but if you are making an investment in the most viewed sporting event in the nation, those stats don’t really mean that much.

If you truly want to make the most out of your picks for the Big Game, then you would like to know how both the Saints and the Colts have performed against the football wagering odds, rather than mere straight up results. And this is where this article kicks in. For Instance, the regular fan (and the regular fan’s sports news site) could tell you that the Colts finished the regular season with a 14-2 record. What’s more, he or she could tell you that the Colts lost their last two games of the season against the Jets and the Bills because Coach Jim Caldwell sat down his key players. What the regular fan (and the regular fan’s sports news site) won’t tell you is that the Colts team covered its wagering spread in 8 of those 14 games. Even more, the Colts have very well covered their spreads in their two playoffs games against the Ravens and the Jets by at least 5 extra points each.

Teams overall performance against the spread
Can you see where I’m going with this? What I am offering here are Super Bowl statistics for the bettor, for the online-gambler, not quite for the regular Joe. So far into the 2009-2010 NFL Football season, the Colts have covered the spread in 66.6% of their games. But hold your horses.

Remember that this is the Big Game. Remember also that this is the Saints first shot at a Super Bowl, and while this can be extremely intimidating, it can also be quite a motivational booster. Lastly, these are just statistics, not the gospel, not an infallible omen. Choose wisely.

Let’s take a look at New Orleans now. The Saints are 13-3 in the regular season. They are 8-8 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season. They are 1-1 ATS in the playoffs. What you might want to take into consideration here is that the Saints have not covered their spread in 6 of their last 7 games, including their over time win against the Minnesota Vikings for the Conference Championship.

Don’t rush into early conclusions just yet. There are a couple other factors you might want to include in your calculations. First, the Saints have been a much better running team this season than the Colts. Historically, the best running team has won 17 of the last 29 Super Bowls. If you want to go with ESPN’s power rankings, the Saints are ranked #1 in running game performance, while the Colts are #22.

As of press time, the Saints are a +5 point underdog. Instant Action Sports opened the line at Colts -6. Underdogs are 18-23-2 ATS in the Big Game. As of press time the line has already gone from -6 to -5½, and recently to -5, following market pressures. The trend might continue or reverse. It all depends on what happens once the weekend kicks in and the bulk of the players come in. So keep an eye out for those changes on the board.

What about the field’s surface?
Here is another fact you might want to consider. The Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, has a natural grass field. New Orleans is 3-2 in the current season and 10-8 in the last three in this kind of surface against the spread. The Colts, on the other hand, are 5-0 for the current season and 11-8 in the last three seasons ATS in natural surfaces.

Is having a high-scoring offense enough to win the Big Game?
If you were loosing your faith in the Saints, check this stat out. I personally think it’s a good one. ALL the 18 teams that have scored over 32 points in the Super Bowl have taken home the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Check this out. In regular season, the New Orleans Saints were the best scoring team in the League with 31.9 points per game. The Colts on the other hand averaged 26 points per game. Including playoffs, the Saint’s moved their record to 32.6 points per game, while the Colts went down to 25.9.

Mixing it up: surface, scoring, veterans vs newbies
Now, let’s factor in the field’s surface and the Saint’s get even better. On grass surfaces the Colts average 29 points per game this season. On that same surface the Saints are 35 points per game. That’s 3 points above that 18-0 Super Bowl winning magic number. In this year’s playoffs the Colts have scored 50 points, while the Saints have scored 76; this could be a significant difference, even for Super Bowl newbies who has the odds against them. Let’s not forget that first time Super Bowl participants are 4-15 straight up, and 6-12-1 against the spread.

Bottom line: The novice bettor plays by heart. The more experienced player does his research and tries to analyze the valuable information at hand to take the most informed pick. Wagering is not meant to be rocket science. Many situations and circumstances factor in a game result. That’s what make’s it fun. The uncertainty is what keeps it exciting.

Jim Caldwell, Head Coach of the Indianapolis Colts, pulled out his starters in the third quarter and seriously jeopardized the Colts’ chances to finish off a perfect season. Perhaps, behind the sour-sweet reaction from Indianapolis fans, Caldwell might have just made the best decision in the long run. Back in 2007, the New England Patriots team had proved that perfection has its own flaws. The Patriots had had the perfect season – almost. There is a certain cruelty in the Patriots ending their perfect streak in the game that mattered most: the Super Bowl XLII. So this year’s Colts might not be perfect, but they are quite virtuous, and this might very well be what makes the difference between holding a perfect record, or the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Let’s face it: the NFL record 23 regular-season winning game strike came to an end while 3 times MVP Payton Manning looked from the sidelines. But Manning and Co. are going to the postseason in top shape, with home team advantage, and no late season injuries to regret. Perhaps this perspective was not clear enough for most of Indianapolis Colts’ fans who filled the Lucas Oil Stadium with boos.

Caldwell pulled out Manning and Co. with a 15-10 lead and 5:36 left in the 3rd quarter. And it did not seem that bad. But things were about to change. First, replacement QB Curtis Painter was hit by linebacker Calvin Pace. Following the hit, Painter lost the ball and Marques Douglas recovered it and scored. Then Mark Sanchez completed a two point conversion pass to Dustin Keller to make it 18-15. Judging by the way the Colts fans shouted their boos, it seemed like they knew that the cow manure was about to hit the wind spinner. 

In the fourth quarter, the New York Jets closed the game with two more scores. Jay Feely’s 43 yard field goal, followed up by a 1 yard touch down, came with no offensive reaction from the Colts. And the die had been cast. The Jets saw an opportunity, and took it. At the end, the Colts lost their perfect season 29-15 against the Jets. But this has been one heck of a regular season.  

The only team that had gone 15-0 in regular season was the 2007 New England Patriots. Only two other teams, the Pats and 1972 Miami Dolphins, had gone into playoffs with a perfect record. This year, both the New Orleans Saints and the Colts could have gone flawless into the last game, and, even if not necessarily plausible, a Saints-Colts final seemed possible. But the Saints now have two defeats in a row. And considering the Jets’ win over Indianapolis, it looks like Don Shula’s Miami Dolphins are still going to be the only team to go undefeated an entire season.

Caldwell’s decision came like an answer to the New York Jets’ prayers. Without Payton Manning, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai in the field, things got way easier for the Jets. Now, after this win, the Jets will not depend upon other teams’ performances to qualify for the playoffs. If they are able to take a home victory over the Cincinnati Bengals this coming week, the Jets will make it into the postseason for the first time since 2006.

There was a bit of controversy around Caldwell’s call. But Manning, the players, and the management stand behind his decision. The bottom line is that the Colts have one goal in mind: to win the Super Bowl. If they are able to do so, losing the perfect streak is a small price to pay.

About the Author

Stephen Lars is a top senior copywriter for the NFL games as well as the top ranking online sports betting site: www.instantactionsports.com

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